We Suck at Predicting
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We Suck at Predicting
We’re never going to get better at predicting the future. This is just how life works.
A Crappy Problem from the Past
At the turn of the 20th century, cities around the world had a crappy problem that was getting worse by the day. Literally. Metropolises were rapidly growing in population, and thus so did the number of horse-drawn carriages to transport people from place to place. The problem? Horses generate a lot of waste. At this time, New York City had an estimated 130,000-200,000 horses transporting people and goods around Manhattan, which meant there was upwards of 5+ million pounds of manure being generated every day. Yeah, that’s a lot of poop.
This problem seemed insurmountable, with predictions that cities would be literally buried in horse poop by the year 2050. But in 1896, a battery and internal combustion engine was attached to a horseless carriage, and within two decades the automobile had taken over, and the horse manure problem solved itself.
The Past Predictions
Two years later, in 1894, The Times of London allegedly predicted that in 50 years, the city would be literally buried in horse poop! And can you blame them? If one looks at the trajectory of people, and horses, and poop, it would be simple to just continue to draw all of those lines up and to the right.
Later, in 1901, a particular pessimistic gentleman predicted that “men would not fly for fifty years.”
That prediction was made in 1901. We all know what happened next: Less than two years later, Wilbur Wright took to the skies in his glider and became the first person in history to fly a manned aircraft.
Predictions Are Fickle
Predictions are fickle, and we humans are quite bad at them. Hell, the reason I can send you this essay is due to the fact that one of the most famous predictions ended up being comically wrong. In 1998, Nobel-prize winning Economist Paul Krugman said that the growth of the Internet would slow drastically and would become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy would be no greater than the fax machine’s. Yikes.
The Wright Brothers
As laid out in David McCullough’s book “The Wright Brothers,” Wright thought about the future differently after proving himself wrong:
“This demonstration of my inability as a prophet gave me such a shock that I have ever since distrusted myself and have refrained from all prediction—as my friends of the press, especially, well know. But it is not really necessary to look too far into the future; we see enough already to be certain that it will be magnificent. Only let us hurry and open the roads.”
Predictions in Our Lives
We can start with acceptance: we’re never going to get better at predicting the future. We can also hold two conflicting ideas in our head at the same time. As President Dwight. D. Eisenhower once said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.”
I’ve simply accepted this is just how life works. I still make plans, and I still make predictions…but I hold those plans and predictions very loosely.
The Task for Today
If we want to become more resilient and make progress on our goals, we need to accept that our plans will rarely go according to plan! Here’s what that might look like in practice:
- “I plan on working out at 5:30PM on Monday/Wednesday/Friday, but I fully expect one of those dates to get screwed up because of work. So, I have a backup “home workout” plan I can do in my living room on those days.
- “I have my “meal plan” for the week, but I expect 30% of my meal plan to get blown up by my kid’s unpredictable after-school schedule, so I know exactly what I’m going to eat if I end up driving through McDonalds and not fall off track.
- “I am trying to reach this goal weight by this date, but I know that everything will always take longer than expected, so I won’t get impatient and instead just keep my focus on what needs to get done that day.
Your Homework
For you, my homework is to review your plans and predictions and identify places where you are holding onto them too tightly. Ask yourself:
- Is there a plan or prediction you’re holding onto far too tightly?
- Can you make an alternative plan for when things inevitably don’t go how you predicted?
- Are you currently assuming some future scenario that will absolutely be true, instead of being open to the possibility that you’re going to be proven wrong?
Conclusion
We may never get better at predicting the future, but that doesn’t mean we have to get better at accepting its unpredictability. By accepting our limitations and holding our predictions loosely, we can become more resilient and adaptable, and better equipped to handle whatever the future may bring.
FAQs
What can we do to improve our predicting skills?
Unfortunately, we may never be able to improve our predicting skills. But what we can do is practice accepting our limitations and holding our predictions loosely, which will make it easier for us to adapt to unexpected changes in our plans and goals.
Why are we so bad at predicting?
We are so bad at predicting because we are wired to pattern recognition, and our brains often create false patterns and correlations where none exist. Additionally, we often fail to take into account the complexity of systems and the countless variables that can impact the outcome of a prediction.
Can we still set goals and plans if we’re so bad at predicting?
Absolutely! While we may never be able to predict the future with complete accuracy, setting goals and plans can help us focus our efforts and make progress towards achieving what we want. The key is to do so with a mindset of flexibility and acceptance, and to be prepared to adapt our plans if circumstances change.
What can we learn from Wilbur Wright?
From Wilbur Wright, we can learn the importance of not being afraid to be proven wrong, and of being open to new information and perspectives. His willingness to learn and adapt led to a major breakthrough in flight, and his story serves as a reminder that even the most seemingly impossible challenges can be overcome with persistence and creativity.
